Your Future Job: Why AI Isn't Taking It, But You Still Need to Adapt
[HPP] Mary MeekerJune 4, 202533 min
24 connectionsΒ·40 entities in this videoβUnprecedented AI Acceleration
- π AI adoption and usage are growing at an unprecedented pace, significantly faster than previous technological shifts like the early internet.
- π‘ A leading large language model achieved 90% adoption among its total users outside North America in just three years, compared to 23 years for the internet's first wave.
- π ChatGPT reached 800 million weekly active users by April 2025, an eight-fold growth in 17 months, marking the fastest user ramp-up for a standalone product.
Economic Paradox: Training vs. Inference Costs
- π° Training frontier AI models is incredibly expensive and rising, with some projects costing upwards of a billion dollars.
- π Conversely, the cost of AI inference (using trained models) is plummeting dramatically, with some costs falling by 99.7% over two years.
- β‘ This dynamic, coupled with technology compounding (e.g., 360% annual growth in training compute capacity), fuels widespread AI adoption by making powerful AI accessible and affordable.
AI's Expanding Capabilities: Multimodal & Agents
- π§ AI is evolving beyond text to multimodal capabilities, processing images, audio, and video simultaneously, with a 1150% increase in large-scale multimodal models released in two years.
- π οΈ This enables practical applications like field engineers diagnosing equipment from photos and voice notes, or doctors drafting reports with AI analyzing X-rays.
- π€ The shift from reactive chatbots to proactive AI agents allows systems to plan and execute sequences of actions, automating tasks across software and even controlling computer screens.
Transforming Work and Industries
- π AI's cognitive ability has rapidly advanced from a high school student level to a mid-level employee in just three years.
- β Companies like Shopify and Duolingo are adopting "AI-first" strategies, with Duolingo only approving new hires if work cannot be automated by AI.
- π Early data shows AI boosts productivity, with customer support agents seeing a 14% increase; AI job postings surged 448% while non-AI IT jobs decreased.
Competitive Landscape & Monetization
- π The AI space is intensely competitive, marked by rising competition, the disruptive force of open-source models (e.g., Llama 3 matching proprietary performance at lower cost), and a geopolitical AI race with China.
- πΈ While profitability remains challenging due to high capital investment, some AI-native companies show incredibly fast revenue growth (e.g., Anthropic hitting $2 billion ARR in 18 months).
- π Tech incumbents leverage their billions of users for massive AI feature adoption, with Microsoft Copilot seeing 15 billion cumulative chats and Meta AI approaching a billion monthly active users.
Future of Global Internet Access
- π AI could unlock global internet access for the 2.6 billion people currently offline, primarily through low-cost satellite internet like Starlink.
- π¬ For these new users, their first internet experience might be "agent-first," directly interacting with an AI in their native language to navigate and perform tasks, bypassing traditional browsers.
- π‘ This "agent-first" paradigm could disrupt existing tech hierarchies and make powerful technology genuinely accessible to billions more people globally.
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Whatβs Discussed
Artificial Intelligence (AI)AI AdoptionLarge Language Models (LLMs)Inference CostsMultimodal AIAI AgentsAutonomous VehiclesAI-First StrategiesOpen-Source AI ModelsGeopolitical AI RaceCapital Expenditure (CapEx)Productivity GainsSatellite InternetAgent-First Internet
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