What Putin Wants: Analyzing the War in Ukraine and Potential Peace Deals

The Push for Peace Negotiations

• 🕊️ Donald Trump and his envoys are actively seeking peace between Moscow and Kyiv, with Trump stating a deal is "closer than ever."
• 🇺🇦 Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has been unwilling to accept some of Trump's key proposals, indicating the difficulty of the negotiations.
• 🇷🇺 Vladimir Putin remains enigmatic, making it hard to discern if he desires a peace deal or wishes to continue the war while Russia has battlefield momentum.

The Leaked 28-Point Peace Plan

• 📄 A 28-point peace plan was leaked, reportedly originating from Russia and heavily favoring Moscow's interests.
• 🤝 Points included Ukraine ceding Donbas territory and promising not to join NATO, reflecting long-standing Russian demands.
• 🚫 Ukraine found the plan unacceptable, with territorial concessions being a major red line.

Russian and European Reactions to Peace Proposals

• 📰 Some Russian pro-Kremlin newspapers celebrated the initial peace plan, while officials stated that not all points were satisfactory.
• 🇺🇸 The new US national security strategy, under Trump, does not label Russia as an enemy, which was well-received in Moscow.
• 🌍 Russian officials portray Europe and Kyiv as actively trying to "torpedo" Trump's peace efforts, aiming to prolong the conflict.

Evolving Discussions and Sticking Points

• 🤝 Intensive diplomacy continues, with Moscow aiming for a deal that favors them and can be presented as a victory.
• 🗺️ The question of territory remains a significant sticking point in ongoing negotiations.
• 🗳️ Zelenskyy suggested Ukraine might forgo future NATO membership and potentially call new elections, but Russia views the election proposal as a potential "trap" rather than a path to a ceasefire.

Putin's Public Image and Russian Domestic Reality

• 🎭 Putin is actively working to reframe himself as a peacemaker, though the narrative in Russia is that the war is a liberation effort, not an aggression.
• 🤥 The Russian authorities have created a "parallel reality" where Russia is presented as the victim of a war initiated by NATO and Europe.
• 📉 More Russians are feeling the economic effects of sanctions and the war, with shrinking oil and gas revenues and rising budget deficits impacting daily life.
• 🗣️ Ordinary Russians often blame local officials for economic issues, only pointing to the top leadership when essential services are threatened.

Putin's Information Access and Goals

• ❓ It's unclear what kind of information Putin receives about the war's progress and public perception, given his isolated existence.
• 🎯 Putin's victory in Ukraine has become paramount, almost existential for him and his system, despite the human cost and economic damage.
• 🚫 Compromise is not a word typically associated with Putin; there's no indication from the Kremlin of a willingness to compromise on key demands, such as control over the Donbas.

Future Outlook and Domestic Control

• 🗓️ The war's duration is approaching that of the Great Patriotic War (WWII) for Russia, a sobering thought given initial expectations of a short operation.
• 🔒 Domestically, even if a peace agreement is reached, Russia is expected to tighten domestic control and surveillance due to the potential social pressures from returning soldiers and the ongoing search for external and internal enemies.