What Happens if Putin is Removed? Russia's Post-Putin Succession Scenarios

Hypothetical Putin Overthrow

• 💥 The video explores a hypothetical scenario where Vladimir Putin is overthrown in a sudden coup, leading to a significant geopolitical shift.
• 📉 The immediate aftermath of such an event would likely involve a plummeting Russian stock market, a falling ruble, and heightened military alert levels.
• ⚠️ While nuclear forces would remain at standard readiness, there's a possibility that the uncertainty could trigger a nuclear war.

Potential Successors and Power Dynamics

• 👑 If Putin were removed, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin would become acting president, but his position is considered tenuous.
• 🛡️ Sergei Shoigu, former Defense Minister and now Secretary of the Security Council, is a strong contender due to his long-standing influence and visibility.
• 🕵️ Nikolai Patrushev, former head of the FSB and Putin's aide, is another likely candidate, potentially adopting an even harder line against the West.
• 👨‍💼 His son, Dmitry Patrushev (Minister of Agriculture), represents a younger, potentially more pragmatic option within the same power network.
• 👤 Alexei Dyumin, Putin's former bodyguard and governor of Tula, is a loyalist strategically placed to potentially succeed Putin.
• 🏛️ Dmitry Medvedev, a former president and current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, could offer a middle-ground candidate with a past reputation for moderation.
• 🏙️ Sergei Sobyanin, the Mayor of Moscow, could leverage his popularity and management of the capital's economic growth for power.
• ⚙️ Sergei Kiriyenko, a technocrat with decades of political experience, including a brief stint as Prime Minister, is another possibility.

Factions and Future Scenarios

• 🤝 The post-Putin era could see a struggle between six main elite groups: the siloviki (strongmen), the military-industrial complex, gas elites (Gazprom), oil elites (Rosneft), the Kovalchuk brothers' financial/media conglomerate, and technocrats.
• 🌐 These groups may have conflicting goals, potentially leading to a new regime open to the West or a perpetuation of Putin-like ideologies.
• 💔 In a worst-case scenario, the Russian Federation could splinter into its constituent republics, echoing historical collapses.
• ✊ A slim possibility exists for a democratic awakening, though the movement has been weakened by Alexei Navalny's death and public apathy.
• 📉 The war in Ukraine and its economic impact could create conditions for further unrest, potentially mirroring the factors that led to Putin's hypothetical overthrow.

Likelihood and Deterrents

• ⚖️ Despite challenges like the war in Ukraine, international sanctions, and internal pressures like the Wagner mutiny, Putin's position has been resilient.
• 💡 A credible coup would likely originate from within his security detail or inner circle, aiming for a more moderate stance with the West to ease sanctions.
• 💰 Such a move would be a gamble, relying on the West's willingness to engage and offer economic incentives for a foreign policy shift.
• 🔒 The uncertain aftermath and potential for severe repercussions serve as a powerful deterrent against any immediate coup attempts.