Western Air Power: Putin's Kryptonite for Ukraine's Future Security

Security Guarantees for Ukraine

• 🛡️ A declaration of intent was signed by Britain and France to deploy troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal, backed by the US.
• 🤝 This initiative, part of the "coalition of the willing," aims to establish a legal framework for British, French, and partner forces to operate on Ukrainian soil.
• 🏗️ Following a ceasefire, the UK and France plan to establish military hubs and protected facilities for weapons and equipment to support Ukraine's defensive needs.

Limitations and Context of the Agreement

• ❓ The announcement was noted for its scant detail, particularly regarding the practicalities of troop deployment and the overall impact on achieving peace.
• 📜 The agreement is seen as a step towards more robust security guarantees than Ukraine received in 1994 after giving up its nuclear weapons.
• 🚫 Russia was not involved in the talks, and President Putin has shown no immediate signs of engaging in peace negotiations.

Geopolitical Considerations and US Involvement

• 🇺🇸 The talks may have been partly aimed at keeping America on side and demonstrating European commitment, especially in light of US actions and statements concerning NATO allies.
• 🤝 The US has agreed for the first time to support a peacekeeping force in Ukraine in case of attack, marking a significant concrete security guarantee.
• 🌍 The commitment to European security is a key consideration, with a focus on maintaining alignment within NATO.

The Role of Western Air Power

• ✈️ Western air power is identified as a significant asymmetric advantage for the West against Russia.
• 💡 It is suggested that Western air power would be Putin's kryptonite, compelling him to reconsider his actions and potentially securing Ukraine's future.
• 🚀 The US is considered preeminent in air power, indicating a potential avenue for robust security guarantees beyond just ground troops.

Challenges and Future Support

• 🔢 The deployment of ground troops faces significant logistical challenges, with estimates suggesting a need for around 200,000 troops, which would represent a substantial portion of European armies.
• 💰 Continued support for Ukraine's defense is planned, including the provision of armaments and working towards binding commitments against future armed attacks.
• 📈 Pressure on Russia will be maintained through measures on oil traders and shadow fleet operators until they engage in good-faith negotiations for a just and lasting peace.