Wesley Clark on Israel-Iran Conflict: Deterrence, Missile Strikes, and Nuclear Sites

Current State of Deterrence

• 🎯 Both Iran and Israel are currently engaged in a form of intrawar deterrence, with neither side escalating to maximum potential.
• ⚠️ Iran has not struck US bases, indicating a desire to avoid direct US involvement, while Israel has not targeted Iran's Supreme Ayatollah.

Iran's Missile Capabilities and Israeli Response

• 🚀 Iran is estimated to possess around 2,000 ballistic missiles, and has fired several hundred in recent exchanges.
• ⚡ Israel faces a challenging mission to strike Iranian missile launching sites and stockpiles, requiring aircraft to fly at extended ranges and utilize air-to-air refueling.
• ✈️ Israel's air defenses may not have been fully neutralized, posing risks to Israeli aircraft operating over Iranian airspace.

Potential Endstates and Nuclear Concerns

• 💡 A possible endstate involves Israel targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, with the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
• 🤝 Iran might engage with the IAEA to halt actions, potentially offering to give up enriched materials in exchange for a pause and return to negotiations.
• 🌍 For a complete resolution of nuclear sites, a ground operation involving demolition, record confiscation, and securing enriched uranium would be necessary, requiring either Iranian destruction or cooperation.
• 🇺🇳 Iran may seek Russian assistance at the UN to bring the IAEA back and call for a ceasefire, especially if they feel the US is fully supporting Israel.