Washington Policy Pulse: H1B Visas, TikTok Deal, and Government Shutdown Outlook

H1B Visa Program Changes

• 💡 The Trump administration announced an executive order increasing the cost of an H1B visa program to $100,000, effective for next year's applications.
• 🎯 This change significantly impacts IT services firms like Infosys and Tata Consultancy, which operate on thin margins and may pivot away from or pass costs to clients.
• 🚀 Hyperscalers such as Amazon, Google, and Meta, with wider margins, are better positioned to absorb the increased fee despite potential dissatisfaction.

TikTok Deal and UN General Assembly

• 📌 A potential deal framework for TikTok involves US entities owning 80% and ByteDance 20%, with a White House meeting scheduled to discuss details.
• 🎤 Washington is expected to be quiet this week due to the United Nations General Assembly, featuring speeches from world leaders, including President Trump.

Financial Stability and Non-Bank Asset Managers

• 📊 The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) is reviewing guidance for non-bank asset managers, potentially impacting alternative asset managers and firms like BlackRock.
• ⚖️ The administration is reverting to an entity-level review for systemic importance, a shift from the previous administration's activity-based approach, reducing the likelihood of immediate capital requirement impositions.

Government Shutdown Projections

• ⚠️ With approximately 8 days until a potential government shutdown, Congress is largely out of session, with the House passing a continuing resolution until November 20th.
• 🗣️ Both the House and Senate are in a stalemate, with leaders expressing a desire for meetings but failing to schedule them, increasing the shutdown probability to 40%.
• 💰 A shutdown could affect around 750,000 government workers, potentially missing paychecks scheduled for November 15th.
• 📈 Some Democratic aides believe a shutdown could serve as a strategic move to energize the base and challenge President Trump before the 2026 elections.