Washington Policy Pulse: Government Shutdown, Crypto, IPOs, and Tariffs

Government Shutdown Stalemate

• ⚠️ The government shutdown continues with neither Democrats nor Republicans in a mood to negotiate, with polling data showing blame shifting.
• 🗓️ Potential pressure points for Democrats include November 1st, when Obamacare subsidies increase and SNAP benefits may be affected, impacting 42 million Americans.
• 📊 Betting markets indicate a majority expect the shutdown to extend into November, despite some predictions of an earlier resolution.

Crypto Industry Policy Outlook

• 🤝 Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is hosting a meeting with crypto CEOs, amidst ongoing discussions for a comprehensive crypto regulatory bill.
• ⚖️ Negotiations are challenging due to the government shutdown, but there's a 70% chance of a broad crypto structure bill passing in the first half of next year.
• 🏦 A key concern is ensuring protections for the banking industry within crypto legislation, particularly regarding stablecoins and the conflict between banks and crypto platforms over yield payments.

Efforts to Revitalize IPOs

• 📈 SEC Chairman Paul Atkins aims to "make IPOs great again" by reducing regulatory burdens for smaller companies.
• 💡 Initiatives may include streamlining disclosures and potentially adjusting listing standards, with a focus on capital formation.
• 🚀 While a massive increase in IPO volume isn't expected, the SEC's actions are unlikely to negatively impact the private credit market.

Tariffs and Trade Tensions

• 🇨🇴 President Trump is expected to announce new tariffs on Colombia due to its alleged links to drug trafficking.
• 🏛️ A Senate resolution to overturn tariffs on Canada and Brazil faces hurdles, requiring a veto-proof majority to become law.
• 🇨🇳 The major focus for the coming weeks is the potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with discussions around additional tariffs on rare earth minerals and commitments to soybeans.

Upcoming Congressional Hearings

• 🏠 The Senate Banking Committee will hold an industry hearing on housing affordability and new home building initiatives.
• 🏦 A more significant hearing will feature credentialed banking regulators (Federal Reserve, FDIC, OCC) discussing the future of bank regulation, Basel 3 endgame, and stress test proposals.