Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan: Risks and Strategies

Blockade as a Strategic Option

• ⚠️ A Chinese blockade of Taiwan is considered a significant strategic concern, potentially more likely than an outright invasion.
• 📈 China appears to be practicing for blockades through naval and air force exercises surrounding Taiwan.
• ❓ Blockade is viewed by some as a low-risk, low-cost method for China to impose its will, though war games suggest costs and escalation risks can be high.

Key Takeaways from War Games

• 💡 The possibility of conflict over Taiwan is real, with Chinese rhetoric and military buildup making it a persistent concern.
• 🤝 Taiwan cannot fight China alone; US support is crucial for its survival and autonomy.
• 🚫 A "Ukraine strategy" of solely supplying Taiwan would likely fail due to the difficulty of sustaining supply lines during a conflict.
• 🚀 Successful intervention by the US is possible, though it would involve significant losses of cargo ships, but can keep Taiwan supplied.
• 🛡️ Preparations by Taiwan, Japan, and the US can enhance deterrence and improve war-fighting capabilities.

Effects of a Blockade on Taiwan

• ⚡ Taiwan can sustain itself for a limited time with existing energy and food inventories, but energy is a critical vulnerability.
• ⏳ Without US support, Taiwan can only hold out for a couple of weeks; US intervention is necessary to keep Taiwan supplied.
• 🚢 US convoys face heavy losses of cargo ships, but can ultimately maintain supply lines to Taiwan.

Escalation and Miscommunication Dynamics

• ⚠️ Escalation often occurs when one side believes it is failing at a lower level, leading to increased military involvement.
• 💬 Signals between adversaries are frequently misunderstood, with actions intended as restraint perceived as preparations for attack.
• 🗣️ Verbal communication is essential to accompany actions to ensure signals are correctly interpreted.

Legal and Geopolitical Implications

• ⚖️ China frames a blockade as an internal law enforcement action, while the US must navigate its "one China" policy and the Taiwan Relations Act.
• 🌍 A conflict over Taiwan would disrupt global trade and chip manufacturing, affecting every nation.
• 🤝 The US needs to secure diplomatic support, as few countries are likely to participate militarily, and emphasize Taiwan's commitment to autonomy.

Regional Importance and Military Strategy

• 🇯🇵 Japan is critical for US military operations due to its strategic bases, vital for short-legged fighter aircraft operations.
• 🇵🇭 The Philippines can be helpful, but its bases are primarily aimed at the South China Sea, not for direct conflict over Taiwan.
• ⚓ The US needs to expand its reserve fleet and renew its naval skills in operating convoys to support Taiwan.
• ✈️ US bases in the Western Pacific need hardening against Chinese missile attacks, which could lead to significant aircraft losses.

Preparing for Blockade: Recommendations

• 🔋 Taiwan must prioritize energy resilience, potentially by maintaining nuclear power plants and delaying a full transition to renewables.
• 🚢 Developing authorities to access merchant ships and building a reserve fleet is crucial for transshipping cargo.
• 🔌 Hardening the electrical system and ensuring rapid repair capabilities are essential for Taiwan's infrastructure.

Off-Ramps and Deterrence

• 🕊️ Total victory is unlikely; pre-planned off-ramps are necessary to allow China to de-escalate without humiliation.
• 🤝 Discussions about off-ramps must occur in advance, focusing on compromises that do not cede vital US or Taiwanese interests.
• 📚 Intellectual work on potential off-ramps by think tanks can build a corpus of options without compromising deterrence.