War with Iran Could Trigger Economic Collapse: Economist Peter St. Onge on Oil Prices, Inflation, and the Dollar

Potential Economic Fallout from Iran Conflict

• ⚠️ A full-scale war with Iran could lead to an economic earthquake, potentially causing crude oil prices to skyrocket past $150 a barrel.
• 📈 While $300 oil is considered an outlier, even a doubling of current prices (to around $115-$120) could result in $5 gasoline and 4-5% inflation, wiping out recent gains.
• 💥 The primary mechanism for extreme price hikes would be a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which would severely impact oil flow to Asia, particularly China, India, and Japan.
• 🌍 Even if not directly using Persian Gulf oil, these nations' desperation would bid up prices globally, benefiting countries like Russia.

The "Doom Economy" and War Profiteering

• 💰 The concept of a "doom economy" suggests a collaboration between the military-industrial complex, media, and intelligence agencies to foster public sympathy for prolonged wars.
• 🧠 Governments have historically had a deep incentive to promote war, often framing it as heroic and inevitable rather than preventable.
• 💸 War is presented as one of the most profitable activities for governments, alongside central banking, requiring a constant stream of new conflicts to maintain financial flow.

The Role of the Federal Reserve

• 🏦 The Federal Reserve acts as a venture capitalist for crises, enabling government deficits through money printing, which is crucial for financing wars and economic shutdowns like those seen during COVID-19.
• 📉 Without the Fed's ability to manipulate the dollar and finance deficits, the public would likely not tolerate the economic costs associated with prolonged military engagements.
• 🚀 The Fed finances wars until they can sustain themselves through American casualties, a pattern that continues as long as central banking exists.

Current Economic Risks and Trump's Position

• 🇺🇸 If the US stays out of a conflict with Iran, the US economy might avoid major danger, especially if Israel's actions remain surgical.
• 📉 However, direct US involvement could escalate the war significantly, potentially ending the "Trump boom" and reversing his economic momentum.
• 🤔 The decision to engage in war might stem from presidents being influenced by intelligence briefings that are essentially PR campaigns designed to sell the idea of conflict.

Precious Metals as a Safe Haven

• 📈 The BRICS nations are increasing their gold and silver holdings, signaling a potential crisis for government currencies.
• 💰 Gold has reached record highs, with projections from major investment banks indicating significant future price increases, potentially reaching $4,000-$6,000 per ounce.
• 🥈 Silver is also experiencing a strong ascent, outperforming gold, and mining stocks are showing substantial gains.
• 📉 The US dollar is in a downward spiral, trading at a three-year low, while gold is up significantly, highlighting a major macroeconomic trend.
• 💎 Companies like ASCAP Ventures, with significant gold deposits and insider buying, are presented as potentially undervalued investments amidst this precious metals bull market.