War Games Predicted Chaos After Ousting Maduro, Says Douglas Farah

Understanding War Games

• 💡 War games are simulations where participants analyze a situation, explore potential outcomes of regime change or other events, and assess economic, military, and social scenarios.
• 🎯 Participants are assigned roles, such as the Red Team (representing the opposing force, e.g., the Venezuelan army) or the Blue Team (representing the US), to role-play and predict reactions.
• 🔑 The goal is to understand how different actors, like neighboring countries (e.g., Brazil), would react to specific events.

Venezuela as a Focus of US Concern

• ⚠️ Venezuela became a focus due to the formation of powerful cartels, the aggressive actions of FARC guerrillas financed by the regime, and increasing involvement from Iran, Russia, and China.
• 📈 During the Obama administration, war games primarily focused on Venezuela's economic crisis and hyperinflation, predicting the regime would likely stay in power and lead to mass migration.
• 🚀 The Trump administration gamed out scenarios involving an internal coup removing Maduro, aiming for a democratic transition, but assessed the repressive apparatus was too entrenched.

Post-Maduro Scenarios and Outcomes

• 📉 In 2019, war games indicated that even if Maduro were removed, the repressive apparatus and lack of trust in the opposition would likely lead to prolonged chaos, similar to Syria.
• 🧩 The most likely successor was seen as Diosdado Cabello, who was adept at managing internal interests, but it was doubted any other player could unite the country.
• 🌍 During the Biden administration, the focus shifted from regime change to analyzing the intersection of criminal organizations and the regime, with less emphasis on Latin America due to other global conflicts.

Sanctions and Unforeseen Actions

• 💰 War games explored viable economic sanctions targeting elites rather than the general population to cut off financial flows to Maduro.
• 🏦 Analysis included identifying methods for moving money out of Venezuela through shell companies and safe harbors, such as a $3.3 billion transfer involving the state oil company and elements of the FARC.
• 🤯 The recent special operation to capture Maduro was entirely unforeseen in war games, as kidnapping a sitting head of state was considered an unrealistic option.

Immediate Aftermath and Future Concerns

• ⚡ Farah expressed shock at the capture, noting that while the capability existed, the action was unexpected.
• ⚠️ He anticipates significant challenges ahead due to the lack of a plan to address immediate needs like food insecurity, gasoline shortages, and medicine access.
• 📉 Without rapid intervention to meet basic needs, the operation risks losing legitimacy, as people may feel they were better off before the change.