Victor Davis Hanson: Trump's Message to Putin on the Ukraine War

New Phase in the Ukraine War

• ⚡ A new phase of the Ukraine war has emerged with Vladimir Putin escalating attacks on civilian targets.
• 💡 Donald Trump responded by calling Putin "crazy," which the left interpreted as Trump finally agreeing with their viewpoint.

Trump's Underlying Strategy

• 🎯 Victor Davis Hanson suggests Trump's statement signals a strategy of making peace through strength, not appeasement.
• 🧠 Trump's subtext to Putin is that his approach aimed to broker a deal, but Putin's actions are now jeopardizing it.
• 🗣️ The proposed deal likely involved Ukraine gaining the Donbas and Crimea, with an arrangement for arming Ukraine outside of NATO.

Putin's Motivation for Escalation

• 📉 Putin may be misreading Trump, believing he can continue the war, gain concessions, and advance battle lines.
• ⚠️ Hanson posits that Putin needs to justify the immense Russian casualties (estimated at 1.5 million dead, wounded, and lost) to internal power structures.
• 🗺️ Putin might believe he hasn't achieved enough territorial gains (Donbas, Crimea, keeping Ukraine out of NATO) to warrant a deal.

Misreading Trump and Future Implications

• 📈 Putin invaded neighbors during the Bush, Obama, and Biden administrations but not during Trump's, suggesting he perceived Trump as unpredictable and erratic.
• ⚔️ Hanson warns that if Putin continues his campaign, Trump's MAGA coalition could remain united, leading to continued arming of Ukraine and an escalating quagmire.
• 🤝 Hanson advises Putin to cut a deal today, resume energy shipments, and present a narrative of standing up to the West, as this is preferable to prolonged, costly conflict.