Victor Davis Hanson on Why Invading Venezuela Would Be a Strategic Catastrophe

Maduro's Regime and US Pressure

• 💡 The Maduro government in Venezuela, described as communist, is facing increasing pressure from the Trump administration due to election fraud, drug trafficking, and causing havoc by emptying prisons.
• 🎯 The US is implementing interdiction efforts, including intercepting illicit oil shipments and drug trafficking, akin to a quasi-blockade or embargo.

Historical Parallels: Grenada and Panama

• 🗺️ The 1983 invasion of Grenada, though successful in sending a message against Cuban influence, was a small island with no neighbors and is not a good model for Venezuela.
• ⚖️ The 1989 invasion of Panama, which ousted General Noriega for creating a police narco-state, is more similar to Venezuela's situation but still differs significantly in scale.

Why Venezuela is Different

• 🌍 Venezuela is the fifth largest country in South America by size and population (30 million), possessing the world's largest oil reserves and significant natural gas resources.
• ⚠️ A ground invasion would be a strategic mistake due to its size, population, military, and vast natural resources, making it unlike Panama or Grenada.

Alternative Strategies

• 🚢 The current strategy of isolating drug shipments and embargoed oil, essentially a blockade, is seen as a more viable approach than invasion.
• 🤝 A key difference from past interventions is the existence of a viable opposition in Venezuela that represents the majority of the people, who were barred by the Maduro government.

Political Ramifications

• 🗣️ A land invasion would be viewed as an optional military engagement, which could face opposition not only from the left but also from the MAGA base itself.