Victor Davis Hanson on Trump's Strike on Iran's Nuclear Program

Operation Midnight Hammer Details

• 🚀 On Saturday night, June 22nd, Donald Trump ordered B-2 bombers to strike Iran's Fordow nuclear site with 14 bunker-busting bombs.
• 🎯 Cruise missiles from U.S. Navy vessels simultaneously targeted other strategic nuclear infrastructure in Iran.
• ✈️ The B-2 bombers, based in Missouri, flew approximately 15 hours round trip, covering 6,000 miles for the mission.

Historical Context of U.S. Military Actions

• ⚠️ The speaker notes a history of U.S. military interventions in the Middle East often not yielding positive outcomes, citing examples like Jimmy Carter's failed rescue attempt, the aftermath of the Iraq War under George W. Bush, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan under Joe Biden.
• 💡 In contrast, Trump's recent operation is distinguished from previous actions as it was not a preliminary to a ground invasion or aimed at regime change, but specifically targeted Iran's nuclear acquisition program.

Iran's Strategic Position and Potential Reactions

• 💰 Iran has spent approximately a trillion dollars over 50 years subsidizing proxy groups like the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas, with little to show for it.
• 📉 An additional trillion dollars has likely been lost through sanctions and oil embargoes over the same period.
• 💥 The primary leverage Iran previously held was the specter of a nuclear bomb, which has now been significantly neutralized for the foreseeable future.
• ❓ The only remaining negotiable item for Iran, according to Hanson, is their own survival.

Impact on Iran's Military and Global Stature

• 😨 The Iranian military leadership may feel uneasy, especially after Israel's prior elimination of top Iranian military officials.
• 📉 The public may direct anger towards both the theocracy and the military for the nation's financial losses and lack of progress.
• ⚖️ The operation has restored a sense of deterrence for the United States, which was perceived as lost under the Biden administration, particularly after the Afghanistan withdrawal.
• 🇮🇱 Israel's actions have been remarkable, neutralizing threats from Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and pushing Russia out of the Middle East, though the risk of overconfidence remains a concern.

Current Situation and Future Outlook

• 🤔 The immediate situation is tense, with no clear prediction for future events, but it is considered significantly improved after the recent military action.
• 🔄 Hanson suggests Iran's response might devolve into a tit-for-tat conflict, similar to the Red Sea situation, until they are exhausted.