Victor Davis Hanson on the Trump-Putin Summit and Ukraine Peace Prospects

Upcoming Trump-Putin Summit

• 📌 A summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is scheduled to take place in Anchorage, Alaska.
• 💡 This meeting is significant as it marks the first U.S.-Russia summit in years and the first direct talks since the war in Ukraine began.
• 🎯 The Biden administration has avoided such meetings, and the narrative of Trump being a "Putin puppet" has subsided.

Trump's Negotiating Strategy and Leverage

• ⚡ Trump previously offered Putin "art of the deal leeway" which was not taken, leading to a pivot towards using leverage against Putin.
• ⚖️ This leverage could include a secondary boycott targeting countries that trade with Russia, potentially including India and China, which would be highly detrimental to Russia.
• ⚠️ Trump is taking significant risks with this strategy, which could severely damage U.S. relations with other nations.

Current State of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

• 📊 The conflict has resulted in immense losses, with estimates of around a million combined casualties for Russia and 400-500,000 for Ukraine.
• 🗺️ The current parameters suggest a deadlock, with Russia approximately 100 miles west of the Crimean and Donbas borders.

Potential Peace Agreement Outline

• 🕊️ A potential peace agreement involves Ukraine not joining NATO, a concession to Putin, which many NATO members privately did not desire.
• 🤝 The agreement might also include Ukraine ceding Crimea and the Donbas, with a demilitarized zone established along the new border.
• ❓ The primary obstacles to peace are Ukraine's constitution, which requires a plebiscite for territorial concessions, and Putin's need to justify the war's enormous costs to his internal hierarchy.

Summit Implications

• 🗣️ Trump is expected to propose terms to Putin, including a non-NATO Ukraine, Crimea, and the Donbas, while negotiating the extent of Russian territorial gains.
• 🇺🇦 Simultaneously, Trump will need to inform Zelenskyy that while Ukraine will continue to be supplied, a blank check cannot be assured indefinitely, and territorial concessions may be necessary for peace.
• ✅ The summit at least allows for direct communication between the leaders to discuss the outlines of a potential peace agreement.