Victor Davis Hanson on India's Shifting Alliances with Russia and China

India's Strategic Position

• 🎯 Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India for 11 years, is a powerful center-right figure.
• 💡 India is seen as a potential English-speaking counterweight to China, with a large and growing population.
• 🇺🇸 The US has welcomed millions of Indian immigrants who bring capital and skills, making them an influential minority.

Strained US-India Relations

• 📉 Despite commonalities, the US-India relationship is experiencing a "rough patch."
• 💰 Historically, India ran trade surpluses with the US, but this has recently closed, with economists disagreeing on the current status.
• 💸 Remittances from Indian citizens in the US to India amount to billions of dollars annually.

Key Points of Contention

• ⚖️ Donald Trump imposed tariffs on India, citing high Indian tariffs on US goods.
• 🛢️ A major point of friction is India's significant purchase of Russian oil, leading to discussions of secondary boycotts by the US.
• ❓ India questions why it's being targeted for buying Russian oil when European nations and China also do.

Geopolitical Realignment

• 🇷🇺 India is developing closer ties with Russia, its traditional partner, and China, its historical rival.
• 🇨🇳 This move is seen as India "triangulating" with both China and Russia, pulling away from the US.
• 🇺🇸 Historically, the US backed Pakistan against India during the Cold War, a decision Hanson views as a mistake given India's democratic nature.

Future Outlook

• 🕊️ The future of US-India relations heavily depends on the outcome of the Ukraine war.
• 📈 If the war ends, relations are expected to improve quickly; otherwise, they are likely to worsen.