Victor Davis Hanson: Iran's Internal Revolution and Shambled Obama-Era Policy

Iran's Internal Pressures

• ⚠️ Iran is described as being in a state of paranoia and on the brink of internal revolution, potentially within a year or two.
• 🚨 The government has reportedly executed nearly a thousand of its own citizens, indicating internal dissent.
• 💸 Economic hardship, including sporadic electricity, interrupted water and sewage, and an inflated currency, is pressuring the population.

Military and Strategic Weaknesses

• 💥 Israel has demonstrated Iran's military weakness by dismantling its terrorist surrogates and embarrassing groups like Hezbollah.
• ⚛️ The United States under Trump has targeted Iran's nuclear proliferation apparatus, setting it back for years.
• ✈️ Iran lacks effective air defenses, making it vulnerable to external actions.
• 📉 Key figures in Iran's nuclear program and military leadership have been killed, creating fear and uncertainty within the regime.

Failure of Obama-Era Middle East Policy

• 🎯 The Obama administration's strategy of using Iran as a counterweight to Israel and moderate Gulf states has failed.
• 🗺️ This policy aimed to create tension that the US could then adjudicate, but the current situation has rendered this approach ineffective.
• 🤝 The Shia axis, including groups like Hezbollah and pro-Iranian factions in Yemen and the West Bank, has been significantly weakened.

Recommended Path Forward

• 📈 Hanson suggests supporting moderate Arab regimes and Israel, maintaining sanctions and embargoes on Iran.
• 🔥 The strategy should be to "turn up the heat" and let internal pressures cause the regime to change, rather than direct intervention.
• 🕊️ The goal is to encourage a change of government in Iran through sustained pressure.