US Strategy on Venezuela: Addressing Regional Crisis and Adversary Influence

Why Venezuela is a Critical Concern

• ⚠️ The situation in Venezuela is a matter of US national interest due to its proximity and potential impact.
• 🌎 A projected migratory crisis of 2–3 million people could collapse social services in neighboring countries like Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and Brazil.
• ✈️ Government-sponsored drug flights protected by armed services fuel gangs and traffic drugs into the US.
• 💣 Venezuela openly harbors terrorist groups, such as the ELN, which poses a threat to regional stability.
• 🌳 Catastrophic environmental destruction is occurring due to gold mining in once pristine areas.

Current International Strategy

• 🤝 The administration's approach emphasizes multilateralism, involving organizations like the OAS, the Lima Group, and many EU countries.
• 📉 Policy focuses on diplomatic isolation and targeting the regime's hard currencies from oil sales, which did not benefit the Venezuelan people.
• ⏳ The strategy requires strategic patience, as sanctions and international pressure take time to build and affect the security forces and elites.

Challenges and Regime Dynamics

• 🧩 The Maduro regime is described as a core of cronies isolated from reality, surrounded by yes-men.
• 🛡️ The regime maintains power by providing incentives to security forces, including multi-layered groups down to street gangs, for protection and surveillance.
• ⏱️ There is public impatience regarding the slow pace of change, with questions about why the crisis isn't resolved more quickly.

Considerations for Future Action

• 🚫 Military intervention presents significant challenges due to the historical baggage of US involvement in the hemisphere.
• ✅ It is crucial to plan for success (Phase 4), considering the day after a potential regime change and the challenges of broken institutions and insecurity.
• 💡 A key challenge is the lack of sufficient leverage to remove Maduro, necessitating a strategy to gain more influence.