US Political Violence Accelerating: The Era of Violent Populism

The Rise of Violent Populism

• ⚠️ The US has entered an "era of violent populism," characterized by high levels of political violence supported by tens of millions across both political aisles.
• 🎯 This trend is not just a pattern but is accelerating, with events like the assassination of Charlie Kirk serving as inflection points.
• 📈 Support for political violence has been growing, with surveys indicating significant percentages of both Democrats and Republicans find the use of force justified for political ends.

Escalation of Political Violence

• ⚡ A series of political assassination attempts and acts of violence have occurred since January 2025, including attacks on Elon Musk, an attempt on Governor Josh Shapiro, assassinations of Israeli staffers, and incidents involving Donald Trump's actions.
• 💥 The Minnesota assassinations of Democratic leaders and the assassination of Charlie Kirk highlight a string of events that have escalated in severity and impact.
• 📣 The speaker's June op-ed in the New York Times warned of this escalation, citing three key reasons that have now manifested.

Underlying Social Change

• 🌍 A major social change driving this political violence is the US transition from a majority-white democracy to a minority-white democracy, a demographic shift occurring for the first time in its history.
• 📊 This demographic transition creates shock politics as it alters election outcomes and the balance of power, raising the stakes for political engagement.
• ⏳ The tipping point generation for this social change is dated around 2015, with the corresponding increase in political violence beginning around 2017.

Balanced Political Violence

• ⚖️ Arguments that one side is solely responsible for political violence are dismissed; the reality is more balanced, with both sides experiencing and perpetrating violent acts.
• 🎯 Recent examples of balanced violence include assassination attempts against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump, Governor Josh Shapiro, and the assassinations of political leaders in Minnesota and Charlie Kirk.
• 🔍 The Chicago Project on Security and Threats website offers more detailed information on the balance of political violence across the US.