US Government Shutdown Ends, Market Impacts and Economic Data Delays

End of the US Government Shutdown

• 🏛️ The longest US government shutdown in history has officially ended with President Trump signing a bill to end it.
• ✈️ Federal employees are returning to work, and air travel is expected to normalize just before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Economic Data and Interest Rates

• 📊 The shutdown has caused delays in crucial economic data releases, including October's employment and inflation reports.
• 📉 This lack of data means the Federal Reserve will have limited information when deciding on interest rates in December, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicating the bar for a rate cut is high.

Yen and Japanese Markets

• 💴 The Japanese yen is approaching a critical level of 155 to the dollar, a point where market intervention by the Japanese government becomes a concern.
• 📉 The new prime minister's desire for low interest rates and the Bank of Japan governor's focus on moderate inflation have led to a sell-off in the yen and Japanese bonds.

Chevron's New Strategy and Oil Market Outlook

• 🛢️ Oil giant Chevron announced a new strategy involving reduced capital spending.
• 📉 Despite forecasts of lower oil prices (averaging $55 per barrel next year) and a predicted massive oversupply of 4 million barrels a day by the IEA, CEO Mike Worth expressed confidence.

UK Economic Growth and Bank of England Rates

• 🇬🇧 Britain's economy grew by a mere 0.1% in the third quarter, a disappointing figure.
• 💻 Economists attribute this slowdown partly to a significant cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover, costing the UK economy an estimated $2.55 billion.
• 📈 Following this news, the odds of the Bank of England cutting rates in December have significantly increased to 82% likelihood.