US Economic Data: Jobless Claims Fall, GDP Revised Lower, Durable Goods Orders Soar

Durable Goods Orders Surge

• 📈 Durable goods orders experienced a preliminary surge of 16.4%, a number described as "huge" and unprecedented in recent history.
• ✈️ This significant increase is largely attributed to distortions likely related to airplanes and transportation.
• 📦 Excluding these factors, core durable goods orders rose by 0.5%, still marking the strongest number of the year and the best since September of the previous year.
• ⚙️ Capital goods orders (non-defense, excluding aircraft) also showed strength, up 1.7%, making it the second strongest number of the year.

GDP Revision and Consumption

• 📉 First quarter GDP was revised lower for the third time, now standing at -0.5%, the weakest since the first quarter of 2022.
• 🌍 This downward revision is attributed to issues with imports and exports, potentially linked to tariff uncertainties.
• 🛍️ Consumption saw a significant drop, falling to 0.5% from 1.2%, which was described as "somewhat shocking" and less than half of previous expectations.
• 📊 The price index at 3.8% and PCE core at 3.5% were both slightly hotter than expected, showing upward revisions.

Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims

• 📉 Initial jobless claims decreased to 236,000, the lowest number since mid-year, indicating a positive trend.
• ⏳ However, continuing claims remained elevated, staying above 1.9 million for five consecutive weeks, a level not seen since 2021.
• 📊 Despite the high level of continuing claims, historical context suggests this number is not exceptionally high.

Market Reaction

• 📈 Yields on bonds moved up slightly, possibly influenced by the hotter-than-expected pricing data within the GDP report.
• 🟢 Pre-opening equities showed positive movement.