US Durable Goods Orders Surge in March, Exceeding Expectations

Economic Data Overview

• 📌 Initial jobless claims came in exactly as expected at 222,000, an increase of 6,000 from the revised 216,000.
• 📉 Continuing claims for the week ending April 12th were 1,841,000, which is about 20,000 lower than expected and the smallest amount since May 2024.

March Durable Goods Report

• 🚀 March durable goods orders showed a significant increase of 9.2%, marking the strongest performance since July 2024.
• ⚠️ However, when transportation is excluded, the figure drops to a zero increase, indicating the strength was heavily influenced by this sector.
• 📊 Non-defense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft) were up one-tenth of a percent as expected.
• 📈 Shipments of these capital goods increased by three-tenths of a percent, exceeding expectations.

Market and Treasury Activity

• 📉 Market yields showed a slight decrease, with the 2-year Treasury hovering at 382 (down five) and the 10-year at 434 (down five).
• 🏦 The US Treasury is set to release $183 billion in coupon supply, including $44 billion in 7-year notes at 1:00 PM Eastern.
• 📊 Yesterday's 5-year auction was considered good, though the shorter maturity 2-year auction was noted as being a bit iffy.
• 📈 The yield curve has steepened significantly over the last four months but has come down from a high of 65 just three days prior.