Ukraine's 'Sleeper Agents' and Guerrilla Campaign Against Russia

Shifting Ukrainian Tactics

• 💡 Ukraine is preparing to shift to guerrilla tactics within Russia, a move that will be "very unpleasant" for the aggressor.
• 🎯 This strategy aims to lessen the blow of wavering US support and demonstrate Ukraine's commitment to defending itself.
• 🚀 The recent car bomb in Moscow, killing a Russian strategic general, is seen as a retaliation for attacks on Ukrainian civilians and a signal of intent.

Planning and Execution of Attacks

• 🧩 The execution of such attacks is considered feasible due to familial ties and freedom of movement between Ukraine and Russia, similar to the Northern Ireland-UK parallel.
• ⏳ While specific attacks might appear spontaneous, they are likely part of longer-planned operations with timing and opportunity being key factors.
• ⚠️ A significant risk is the potential for Russia to respond with tactical nuclear weapons due to perceived terrorism within its borders.

The Broader Geopolitical Context

• 📉 The discussion touches upon a potential US policy shift, possibly leading to reduced aid for Ukraine, which could force a reliance on insurgency-style warfare.
• 🌍 If the US becomes an irrelevant player, Ukraine and Europe might reject American initiatives, potentially leading to a different approach to the conflict.
• 🇨🇳 A peace deal condoning Russia's invasion is seen as appeasement and sends a negative message to China.

Sustainability and Russian Response

• ⏳ A guerrilla strategy can be sustained over time, akin to "water against rock," eventually impacting Russia's resolve, especially if casualties mount internally.
• 💥 Ukraine could escalate by targeting infrastructure, military bases, and senior leadership within Russia.
• 🔍 Russia faces a significant challenge in defending against these attacks due to the