Ukraine's Deep Strike Strategy: Eradicating Russian Stockpiles with Long-Range Attacks

Russian Offensive Preparations

• 🇷🇺 An ongoing Russian offensive is currently underway in Ukraine's Sumi oblast, not a potential future one.
• 🎯 An estimated 125,000 Russian troops are positioned near the border, potentially to be committed to operations in Sumi and Kharkiv regions.
• 🗺️ Russia's primary focus for the 2025 summer campaign season is expected to be in the Donbas, specifically near Constantinivka.

Shifting Russian Objectives

• 📈 The catalyst for Russian advances is Putin's need to demonstrate map gains, influencing the political will of the international coalition, particularly the US.
• 🧠 Russian battlefield gains are often small and come at enormous military losses, not operationally sound.
• 🎯 Russia's minimum demand includes at least four regions of Ukraine they do not fully control, with a broader, informal claim to all of Ukraine, referencing historical ties to Kievan Rus.

Negotiation Tactics and Western Response

• ⏳ Protracted negotiations have led to more explicit Russian demands, including the demilitarization and "denoxification" of Ukraine, and rolling back NATO borders to 1997.
• ⚠️ Russia aims to shape US thinking towards abandoning Ukraine, rather than doubling down on support.
• ⏳ Russian negotiation tactics are characterized by a desire to buy time and string along Western powers, with the unofficial motto: "What's mine is mine, and what's yours is up for negotiation."

Deep Strike Strategy for Ukraine

• 💡 Ukraine needs to impose conventional operational losses on the battlefield within Ukraine, using deep strikes to support operational maneuver.
• 🎯 Deep strikes should target operationally critical objects sustaining Russian forces near the front lines, such as depots and oil refineries, timed strategically.
• 🧩 Replicating battlefield air interdiction effects with precision long-range fires is crucial for isolating sectors and hindering enemy logistics and rotations.
• ✈️ While Ukraine has had success with deep strikes, a better strategy and concept of operations are needed, focusing on battlefield support rather than solely imposing pain on Russia.

Global Security and Russian Ambitions

• 🌍 Putin seeks to dismantle the current international rules-based order and create a multipolar world order with increased influence for Russia, China, and Iran.
• 🤝 Russia uses the guise of an egalitarian system to build goodwill with the Global South and East, but primarily aligns with countries supporting its geopolitical objectives.
• 🇪🇺 European allies, particularly those closer to Russia, better understand the ineffectiveness of Russian threats and the validity of deterrence logic.