Ukraine War: Zelensky's 'Not an Inch' Stance and Potential Putin-Trump Alignment

The Need for a Settlement

• 🎯 A settlement to the Ukraine-Russia war is inevitable and will require concessions from both sides.
• 🔑 Wars often end with settlements, even when one side is perceived as more just.

Zelensky's 'Not an Inch' Position

• ⚠️ Zelensky's apparent stance of "not an inch" regarding territorial concessions is seen as an impediment to a resolution.
• 🗣️ This position, also echoed by Boris Johnson, may be a bargaining tactic but will likely need to be softened.
• 🇷🇺 There's a concern that this inflexibility could give Donald Trump an excuse to side with Putin.

Territorial Concessions: Crimea and Donbas

• 🗺️ It is highly unlikely that Ukraine will regain Crimea.
• 🤝 The Donbas region, particularly Donetsk, will likely involve "horse trading".
• 💰 Handing over the Donbas, which holds significant untapped gas reserves, could impact future Ukrainian prosperity and security.

The Trump Factor and Negotiation Dynamics

• ⚖️ The presence of Donald Trump as a potential future leader distorts standard negotiation dynamics.
• 🚫 While Zelensky is expected to make concessions, Putin has not been asked to concede anything, creating an imbalance.
• 🇺🇸 Trump could use Zelensky's refusal to concede as justification for his own stance, framing Zelensky as the obstacle.

Alternative Concessions and International Law

• 💧 A potential, unmentioned concession could involve securing fresh water access to Crimea via the Dnieper River, potentially with US protection.
• ⚖️ Rewarding a country for breaking international law by taking territory is problematic.
• 💔 The difficulty of selling concessions to the Ukrainian people after significant loss of life is immense.