Ukraine Peace Deal Negotiations: Territory, Security Guarantees, and the Budapest Memorandum

Key Sticking Points in Peace Negotiations

• 📌 The primary obstacle in the peace deal negotiations revolves around the Donetsk region, with Russia demanding Ukrainian troop withdrawal to gain control.
• ⚠️ Ukraine views this demand as a non-negotiable point, stating it's not a matter for trade or security guarantees, and is painful for the entire Ukrainian state.
• 🤝 The US is reportedly pressing Ukraine to sign the memorandum or peace deal, despite this territorial demand being a key achievement Putin seeks to present to the Russian society.

Security Guarantees and Past Agreements

• ❓ There is significant confusion and lack of expert explanation regarding the meaning of current security guarantees offered by the US and European sides.
• 📜 Ukraine already possesses security guarantees from the US, UK, France, Russia, and China under the Budapest Memorandum, yet the events of 2014 demonstrated their ineffectiveness.
• 🚫 The current proposed guarantees are described as Article 5-style but do not extend to pledging American troops on the ground.

Potential Paths Forward and Public Opinion

• ⚖️ A potential compromise discussed is freezing the front line where it currently is, but this is unacceptable to Ukraine if it involves withdrawing troops from the Donetsk region.
• 🗳️ The possibility of holding a referendum to let Ukrainian society decide on territorial concessions is being discussed, but is unlikely to be accepted by parliament or the public.
• 📉 There is skepticism about reaching a solution before or even after Christmas, with ongoing active combat actions and a reported rejection of a Christmas ceasefire proposal by Russia.

Accountability and Future Implications

• ⚖️ Ukraine emphasizes the need for accountability for war criminals, stating they should not travel freely or be treated as respectable partners.
• 🌍 The call is for European and US leaders to demonstrate their capability to secure peace and hold Russia accountable.
• ⚠️ The approach of trading territory for guarantees is seen as a huge mistake, particularly with Russia, due to a fundamentally different mentality and the existential nature of the conflict for Ukraine's political existence.