Ukraine Destroys Russia's "Invincible" Oreshnik Missile in Covert Operation

Covert Strike on Oreshnik Missile

• 🇺🇦 Ukraine's SBU, GUR, and SZRU conducted a covert operation to destroy a Russian Oreshnik long-range ballistic missile.
• 🎯 The strike occurred on July 8, 2024, at the Kapustin Yar launch site in Russia's Astrakhan region, over 250 miles from the Ukrainian border.
• 🗓️ Details of this successful mission were revealed over a year later, on October 31, 2025, by President Zelenskyy and SBU chief Vasyl Malyuk.

The Oreshnik Missile System

• 🚀 The Oreshnik is described as one of Russia's newest and most advanced intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs), potentially based on the RS-26 Rubezh.
• ⚡ It is reported to travel at speeds up to Mach 10 and is designed to maneuver, making it difficult to intercept.
• 🎯 A key feature is its multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV), capable of deploying up to six warheads, each potentially containing submunitions.
• ⚠️ Despite its advanced capabilities, experts suggest it relies on old technologies combined in a new way and may be an expensive delivery system for its destructive power.

Putin's Claims vs. Expert Analysis

• 🗣️ President Putin has exaggerated the Oreshnik's capabilities, claiming it can reduce targets to dust and is comparable to nuclear weapons in mass use.
• 🧐 Defense experts like Fabian Hoffmann and Jeffrey Lewis argue that the Oreshnik is largely a continuation of the RS-26 project with minor upgrades, not a revolutionary new system.
• 💰 Analysts criticize its cost-effectiveness, noting that its conventional warhead size and quantity are limited relative to its high cost.

Strategic Implications of the Strike

• 🌐 The successful deep strike demonstrates that no location within Russia is beyond Ukraine's reach, undermining Russian claims of security.
• 🤫 The delayed revelation of the attack suggests Ukraine may be conducting multiple undisclosed operations, keeping its capabilities close to its chest.
• 🏭 Ukraine has identified the companies involved in the Oreshnik's development, potentially opening them up to future strikes.

Production and Limitations

• 📉 Russia reportedly has limited production capacity for the Oreshnik, with estimates suggesting only up to six missiles per year.
• 💸 The high cost of production, coupled with Russia's economic situation, may further limit the missile's widespread deployment.
• 💥 While the Oreshnik has theoretical capabilities for significant damage, its actual battlefield impact and strategic value are debated.