Tulsi Gabbard's 2025 Threat Assessment: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Transnational Criminals

Transnational Criminal Organizations

• ⚠️ Cartels and gangs are a significant threat, responsible for over 54,000 US citizen deaths from synthetic opioids in the year ending October 2024.
• 💰 Mexico-based TCOs are the primary suppliers of illicit fentanyl, sourcing precursor chemicals mainly from China and India.
• 👥 These groups also profit from human trafficking, facilitating over two million illegal immigrant encounters at the US southwest border in 2024.
• 💻 Non-state cyber criminals target US economic interests, critical infrastructure, and commercial capabilities through tactics like phishing and ransomware.

Transnational Islamist Extremists

• ☪️ Groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda continue to inspire or enable attacks against the US, aiming to establish a global Islamist caliphate.
• 📢 They actively spread ideology, recruit, and radicalize individuals in the US and the West, sometimes influenced by online propaganda.
• 🔄 These jihadist groups demonstrate an ability to adapt and evolve, utilizing new technologies and tactics.

Key State Actors: China

• 🇨🇳 China is assessed as the most capable strategic competitor, aiming for global leadership economically, technologically, and militarily.
• 📈 Beijing is driven by a belief that Washington is attempting to contain its rise, while facing domestic challenges like a slowing economy.
• 🚀 China's military is fielding advanced capabilities, including hypersonic weapons and stealth aircraft, and is expanding its presence in the Asia-Pacific.
• 💻 Cyber capabilities are advanced, targeting US government and private sector information and critical infrastructure.
• 💎 China dominates strategic supply chains, including critical minerals, and has imposed export bans in response to US controls.

Key State Actors: Russia, Iran, and North Korea

• 🇷🇺 Russia possesses formidable nuclear and conventional military capabilities, with a modern nuclear force designed to circumvent US missile defense.
• 🛰️ Russia is developing advanced cyber capabilities and anti-satellite weapons, including a satellite intended to carry a nuclear weapon.
• 🇮🇷 Iran seeks to expand its influence in the Middle East, possessing ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs capable of striking US targets.
• ⚛️ While not currently building a nuclear weapon, Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is at unprecedented levels.
• 🇰🇵 North Korea pursues stronger strategic and conventional capabilities to bolster its regime and gain leverage, with a cemented strategic partnership with Russia.
• 💥 North Korea is prepared to conduct another nuclear test and continues to flight test ICBMs.

Evolving Global Cooperation

• 🤝 Since 2022, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have grown closer, with Russia acting as a catalyst for expanded cooperation.
• 🛡️ This cooperation is driven by Russia's need for support in its war effort against Ukraine and protection from sanctions.
• 🔄 Russia relies on China's financial and defense industry backing, and has increased joint military exercises with China and Iran.