Trump's Leverage Over Putin: Former US Ambassador Explains

Putin's Isolation and Trump's Influence

• 🎯 Putin is described as a pariah and an indicted war criminal, currently "out in the cold."
• 🔑 Donald Trump is presented as having the leverage to bring Putin in and potentially end the conflict.
• 🤝 Trump has reportedly already begun discussions with Putin, and the former ambassador believes Trump can cut off Putin's access.

Non-Attendance at Summit Meetings

• 🗓️ The non-attendance of Senators Rubio and Wickoff at a summit meeting is downplayed, with schedules often made weeks in advance.
• ⚠️ However, Witoff's failure to meet with Ukrainians is seen as a missed opportunity to hear their perspective.

US Stance on Ukraine and Negotiation Tactics

• 📉 There's a narrative that America is distancing itself from Ukraine, with Trump suggesting a potential pass on a deal.
• ⏳ Trump's 24-hour deadline for a deal is viewed as a pressure tactic or negotiating tactic, reflecting frustration with the lack of progress.
• 🎣 This tactic appears to have affected Putin, who reportedly offered a 30-hour ceasefire, indicating he doesn't want Trump to walk away.

Potential Pressure on Putin

• ⚖️ The danger lies in Putin playing Trump, not applying real pressure, as seen with the unheeded ceasefire.
• 💰 Trump needs to use his leverage by indicating costs to Putin, such as additional economic sanctions on countries buying Russian oil (India, China).
• 🚀 Alternatively, Trump could provide unprecedented weapons to Ukrainians if Putin doesn't negotiate seriously.

Ukrainian Stance and Potential Deal Frameworks

• ✅ Ukrainians have agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, but Putin rejected it, highlighting him as the obstacle.
• 🗺️ A reported plan involves freezing the battlefield, requiring Ukraine to concede land, including Crimea, with no formal US security guarantee.
• 🙅‍♀️ This proposed settlement, tilted in Russia's favor, is unlikely to be accepted by Ukraine, who will never recognize Russian claims to Crimea.
• 🇪🇺 While the US might consider recognizing Crimea, European nations are unlikely to do so.
• 🛡️ Security guarantees are being discussed by Britain and France, but a US backstop is seen as essential, which is not currently forthcoming.
• 🧩 The danger of atomized positions among the US, Russia, Ukraine, and Europe is acknowledged, but not yet a foregone conclusion.