Trump Plans Phone Call with Putin to Discuss Ukraine War and Trade

Planned Trump-Putin Call

• 📞 President Trump announced plans for a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday at 10 a.m. to discuss ending the Ukraine war.
• 🎯 The stated subjects for the call are stopping the "bloodbath" in Ukraine and trade.
• 🤝 This follows recent face-to-face talks between Ukraine and Russia representatives in Turkey, which yielded a prisoner swap but no significant peace deal progress.

Trump's Stated Rationale

• 🗣️ Trump previously stated that only he and Putin can end the war, expressing skepticism about significant breakthroughs without their direct conversation.
• 🇺🇸 The U.S. has indicated that a significant cease-fire breakthrough is unlikely until Trump and Putin can speak.
• 🌍 European allies and the U.S. have been pressuring Putin to accept a 30-day ceasefire deal.

Expert Skepticism on a Deal

• 🤔 Former U.S. Representative Jane Harman expresses skepticism, suggesting Putin has been playing Trump and is unlikely to compromise on his aspirations for Ukraine and potentially Europe.
• ⚠️ Harman notes Putin is increasing his arsenal and working with China, Iran, and North Korea, making a cease-fire potentially more advantageous for him.
• 🚫 She believes a deal is unlikely to come out of this call, citing Putin's history of violating past agreements.

Potential Trump Offers and European Concerns

• 🤝 Trump might offer no sanctions or other preferences and deals for critical minerals to incentivize Putin.
• 🇺🇦 However, any deal would require Ukraine's agreement, as they are the aggrieved party.
• 🇪🇺 European allies are concerned about undermining progress and feel they need to be at the table, providing aid and military assets to Ukraine.
• 🗺️ Allies are hoping the call, potentially followed by calls with Zelenskyy and themselves, might put something agreeable on the table, but remain skeptical of Putin's interest.

Geopolitical Context

• 🇷🇺 Putin has significant leverage, recently participating in a major military celebration with Xi Jinping.
• 🇨🇳 China's foreign policy in the Middle East is described as hating war but loving gold, a transactional approach that has seen some wins but still faces challenges like Iran and Israel.
• ❓ The discussion touches on the possibility of Trump attempting to host a summit with Putin and Xi Jinping in the U.S., which could have political implications.