Tropical Weather Update: July 12, 2025 - Atlantic Basin Quiet Amidst Wind Shear

Atlantic Basin Conditions

• 🌬️ The tropical Atlantic basin is currently quiet due to areas of wind shear, particularly off the east coast of Florida and through the Caribbean.
• ⚠️ While this is a typical location for July development, current conditions are keeping tropical activity at bay.

Hurricane Season Forecast Update

• 📊 Forecasters have reduced the expected number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes by one for the season due to persistent wind shear.
• 📈 The updated outlook now forecasts 16 named storms (down from 17), 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, which is still above average but closer to the historical average of 14 named storms.
• 🌊 The lack of an El Nino is noted as a factor, with only a slight pullback in the forecast despite the wind shear.

Potential Development Areas

• 🛰️ An area of interest is being monitored off the west coast of Florida extending towards Texas, with very low odds of development (less than 20%).
• 🗓️ This area is expected to be of interest from July 16th to the 22nd.
• ☁️ An upper-level area of low pressure is expected to form off the east coast of Florida early in the upcoming week, which could increase deep tropical moisture.

Increased Rain Chances

• 💧 Once the low-pressure system moves into the Gulf, there is a chance for development, but the primary impact will be increased tropical moisture and higher rain chances.
• ⚠️ An excessive rain outlook is in effect starting Monday.