Tropical Weather Update: July 11, 2025 - Quiet Tropics Amidst Wind Shear and Dry Air

Current Tropical Conditions

• 🏝️ The tropics are currently very quiet, with a large amount of wind shear across the Caribbean suppressing development.
• 🌡️ While sea surface temperatures are warm, they are not as warm as they were a year ago, contributing to the current quiet period.
• 💨 A ridge of high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico is also suppressing any tropical activity.

Seasonal Forecast Adjustments

• 📉 Colorado State has updated its seasonal forecast, slightly backing off on the number of expected storms due to persistent wind shear.
• 🌊 Despite current quiet conditions, the season is still expected to see plenty of activity as it progresses.

Atlantic and Saharan Dust Influence

• 🌊 The Atlantic is not showing significant tropical waves, but models indicate an increase in activity over the next week as the season heads towards August.
• 🏜️ Saharan dust is moving westward across the Caribbean and is expected to spread over the Gulf and South Florida through the weekend.
• ⚠️ This dry air is projected to persist, with a large swath of drier-than-average conditions expected through approximately July 22nd.

Gulf of Mexico and Florida Outlook

• ☁️ A complicated weather pattern is developing, with an upper-level low expected to move into the Gulf mid-next week, potentially shifting the high-pressure ridge.
• 💧 This pattern is expected to bring a significant return of moisture to Florida, increasing rain chances for the first and middle parts of next week.
• 📊 Computer models (European, GFS) show little to no development, with only the GFS indicating a very broad area of low pressure mid-week, lacking consensus among models.
• 🔍 The primary focus for the Gulf is currently on moisture influx rather than significant tropical development.