Tropical Weather Forecast: July 1, 2025 - Potential Development & Heavy Rain Expected

Potential Tropical Development in the Atlantic

• 🎯 An area of interest is being closely monitored over the Sunshine State, with a 30% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.
• ⚠️ There is a 0% chance of development in the next two days, with any formation expected later in the week.
• 📈 Models suggest a slightly better chance for low pressure to form off the east coast of Florida, though the Gulf and Atlantic remain possibilities.

Heavy Rainfall and Southeast Impact

• 🌧️ Regardless of tropical development, rounds of heavy rain are expected across the Southeast for the next several days.
• 💧 Tropical moisture will increase by Wednesday and continue through the Fourth of July weekend, leading to significant rainfall accumulation.
• 📊 The Tampa Bay area could see 3 to 6 inches of rain, with central Florida potentially receiving 7 to 8 inches.
• ⚠️ Thursday is identified as the day with the highest risk for excessive rain, with a 1-in-4 risk for excessive rain in central and south Florida on Friday.

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Activity

• 🌀 Hurricane Flossy in the Eastern Pacific is expected to become a major hurricane in the coming days.
• ⚠️ Tropical advisories and watches are in effect for the southern coast of Mexico.
• 🌊 The primary impacts for the Baja Peninsula are expected to be rain and high surf, with winds increasing along the coast.
• ✈️ Outer rainbands from Flossy may move into parts of Mexico and potentially the Cabo area.
• 💨 Outer rainbands are also expected to bring tropical moisture to parts of South Texas and the Southwest US.