Tropical Wave Monitoring: Atlantic and Caribbean Forecast

Tropical Wave Activity

• ⚠️ Two areas of disturbed weather are currently being monitored in the Atlantic.
• 🗺️ One system is in the North Atlantic with a low 10% chance of development over seven days, potentially taking on subtropical characteristics.
• 🌊 The primary focus is on a tropical wave in the southern Atlantic, about 3,000 miles southeast of Florida.

Caribbean System Forecast

• ⚡ This southern wave is expected to move into the eastern Caribbean by the end of the weekend or start of next week.
• 📈 Enhanced satellite imagery shows vigorous thunderstorm activity, and the system is moving into a more favorable environment with warmer sea surface temperatures and lower wind shear.
• 🌀 Several forecast models (European, European AI, American, Google DeepMind ensembles) hint at potential development by the end of next week, with some suggesting a track back to the north and east.

Current Hurricane Season Outlook

• 📊 Most storms this season have stayed east of the United States, with only a few forming in the Gulf.
• 🌡️ The Caribbean has remained clear, and sea surface temperatures are above average, supporting potential development even late in the season.