Tropical Update: Potential Development in the Southern Gulf of Mexico

Tropical System Potential

• 🎯 A spot of energy in the southern Gulf of Mexico is being monitored by the hurricane center for potential development over the next several days.
• ⚠️ If development occurs and a storm is named, it would be designated as Barry, following Andrea which formed in the open Atlantic.

Statistical Outlook

• 📊 Historically, development in June and July often occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean, or off the east coast.
• 📈 Currently, there is a 20% chance of development for this system as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula into the southern Gulf.

Computer Model Projections

• 🛰️ Modeling suggests a closed isobar could form in the southern Gulf by Saturday, indicating potential low-pressure development.
• 🌀 By Sunday, models show a more organized closed isobar with associated rain and thunderstorms, suggesting a possibility of a tropical depression.
• 💨 Even without full development, the system could sling moisture northward, enhancing rain chances for the Texas coast.

System Trajectory and Dissipation

• 📉 By Monday and Tuesday, modeling indicates the system may become elongated and disorganized, moving into central Mexico.
• ☁️ The models do not forecast a strong hurricane or tropical storm formation in the Gulf or Atlantic, unlike a system named Flossy in the Pacific.

Monitoring and Season Context

• 🚨 Anytime there's a chance of development in the Gulf of Mexico, it is watched closely, as systems can sometimes overperform expectations.
• 🗓️ Barry would be the next named storm of the 2025 hurricane season if this system develops.