Tropical Update: Gulf System Lowers Development Chance to 30%

Tropical System Overview

• 🌀 A tropical wave is currently pushing rain across Louisiana due to its counterclockwise circulation.
• ⚠️ The system is disorganized, with the core still offshore, preventing it from developing into a named storm like Dexter.
• 📉 The National Hurricane Center has lowered the chance for tropical development to 30%, a decrease from previous forecasts.

Expected Impacts and Rainfall

• 🌧️ Broadly scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with the overall flood threat dropping slightly.
• 📍 Rain is expected to be concentrated in areas east of the current location, with slightly lower accumulations than previously anticipated.
• 📈 Models show a westerly track that then hooks northerly, expected to pass over New Orleans.

Local Weather Forecast

• ☀️ Today will be hot and humid, with temperatures reaching 96°F and feeling like over 100°F.
• ⛈️ Tomorrow, rain chances increase, with the best probability for showers and thunderstorms from midday through the afternoon.
• 💧 Localized rainfall accumulations could range from a half-inch to an inch and a half, with higher amounts possible in areas east of the city.

Flood Risk Assessment

• ⚠️ A flood watch is in effect for a significant part of Louisiana.
• 📍 The flood risk today is moderate south of Lafayette and central Louisiana, but non-existent locally.
• 🗺️ Tomorrow, a broad area of slight risk for high water is expected, with marginal risks in some eastern counties, indicating possible high water spots.

Future Systems

• 📅 The next named storm on the list after Dexter (which was not formed) is Aaron.
• 📊 The overall rain threat has trended lower, but tropical downpours are still possible.