Tropical System Development Update: Gulf Coast Weather Forecast

Tropical System Outlook

• 🎯 The primary area of concern for tropical development is located off the east coast of Florida, near Jacksonville.
• ⚠️ Current odds for development within the next 7 days are capped at 40%, with the system needing to move over open Gulf waters to strengthen.
• 🌀 The system is currently a tropical wave (Invest 93L) with 30 mph winds, moving west at 10 mph, and is expected to remain over land for the next 18-24 hours.

Factors Affecting Development

• 🌡️ Water temperatures in the Gulf are warm, ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the Texas coast to over 90°F in some areas, providing ample fuel.
• 🌬️ Wind shear from the east coast is a significant factor, currently decoupling the low-level and mid-level circulations, hindering organization.
• ⛰️ A large area of high pressure over the Atlantic is influencing the system's track, potentially keeping it moving west or into the Gulf rather than north.

Potential Impacts and Forecast Uncertainty

• 🗺️ Computer models show significant disagreement on the system's future track, with possibilities ranging from the Florida panhandle to southeast Louisiana and potentially impacting southeast Texas.
• 🌧️ Regardless of development, heavy rain and tropical downpours are expected for the Florida Peninsula over the next 24 hours and for the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Saturday.
• ⚠️ The lack of a well-defined, stacked circulation over open water contributes to the current uncertainty, with models expected to align better once the system re-emerges over the Gulf.

Preparedness and Monitoring

• 🗓️ Residents are advised to monitor the forecast daily as conditions can change rapidly, especially once the system moves back over water.
• 🏠 It is a good time to refresh hurricane preparedness plans, including evacuation routes and emergency kits.
• 📢 KHOU 11 will provide frequent updates on KHOU 11 Plus, TV, and social media, with the next update scheduled for 6:30 PM.