Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast to Become Major Hurricane in Caribbean

Tropical Storm Melissa Intensification

• 🌀 Tropical Storm Melissa is currently in the central Caribbean and is forecast to become a major hurricane (Category 4 or 5).
• 📈 This intensification would mean four major hurricanes this season, exceeding Colorado State University's forecast of three.
• 🌡️ Warm sea surface temperatures, near 90°F in the Caribbean, and deep warm water content provide ample energy for Melissa's development.
• 🌊 The storm is currently upwelling warm water, indicated by a slight decrease in ocean heat content in its immediate vicinity.

Melissa's Slow Movement and Impacts

• 📍 Melissa is moving very slowly, north at only 2 mph, and is expected to stall over warm waters with favorable upper-level winds, leading to significant strengthening.
• 📉 Models predict Melissa will become a Category 4 hurricane by the end of the week and early next week, potentially impacting Jamaica and Hispaniola.
• ⚠️ The primary threats to Jamaica and Hispaniola are heavy rainfall and mudslides, with projected totals of 15-30 inches in some areas.
• 🧊 A cold front is expected mid-week to push Melissa north and east, eventually moving it across the Bahamas.

Local Weather Forecast for Houston

• ⛈️ Two rounds of thunderstorms are expected for Saturday, prompting a weather impact alert.
• ⚡ The first round will arrive between now and 5 AM, with lightning, thunder, and gusty straight-line winds.
• 🌪️ The second round is forecast for Saturday afternoon and evening, carrying a severe threat with potential for wind damage and isolated tornadoes.
• ☀️ Sunday is expected to be much nicer, with a cold front bringing cooler temperatures.