Tropical Storm Development Outlook: Eastern Atlantic System on Sept. 3, 2025

Eastern Atlantic Tropical System

• 🎯 An area in the eastern Atlantic, off the coast of Africa, is being closely monitored for tropical development.
• 📈 The Hurricane Center has assigned a 70% chance of development over the next seven days.
• ⚠️ Development is defined as reaching at least a tropical depression stage.

Factors Affecting Development

• 💨 The system is currently disorganized, with clusters of showers and storms.
• 🏜️ Significant Saharan dust to the north and dry air are expected to continue plaguing the system.
• 🌬️ While wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, becoming more favorable, the dry air remains a significant impediment.

Model Projections and Intensity

• 📊 The Fox model shows development over the next couple of days, but with limited convection and potential struggles by Sunday.
• 📉 Models suggest the system will develop slowly and have issues along the way, potentially leading to a weaker storm.
• 🗺️ A slower development is likely to push the system further south on a westerly track, influenced by a ridge to the north.

Expected Wind Gusts and Storm Strength

• 💨 Peak wind gusts are projected to be in the 50 to 60 mph range by the weekend, indicating tropical storm force winds.
• ⚠️ The lower end of this range, around 60-65 mph wind gusts, is more likely due to the system's struggles.
• 🌊 This suggests the system will likely become a tropical storm by Monday of next week.

Long-Term Outlook

• ⏳ The progression is expected to be a very slow and gradual process over the coming days, through the weekend, and into next week.
• 🌍 Both the European AI and GFS models indicate a slow progression, with the ridge to the north steering the system subtly southwards.
• 🔍 It will be a "wait and see" situation, with continuous updates provided.