Trita Parsi on Iran Protests, US Policy, and Regime Entrenchment

Current State of Iran Protests

• 📉 Protests in Iran have recently decreased in intensity, leading the government to partially restore phone lines and organize pro-government rallies.
• ⚠️ Despite a lull, the fundamental reasons for the protests remain unaddressed, and future demonstrations are possible, with this Friday being a key indicator.
• 📈 The government has employed significant brutality, with US government estimates of 1,600 deaths, and an unusual ratio of police to protesters suggesting an element of violence within the protests themselves.

Drivers and Radicalization

• 💸 The initial trigger for protests was the collapse of the currency due to government mismanagement, corruption, and the impact of US sanctions.
• ✊ Protests quickly evolved into opposition against the entire Islamic Republic regime, fueled by a trend of radicalization over the past 15-20 years.
• 🌃 Protests are increasingly occurring at night, facilitating the use of violence by certain elements within the movement.

US Policy and International Involvement

• 🇺🇸 Policies, including sanctions, pushed by the US and others have deliberately worsened the economic situation, creating desperation that fuels protests and potential violence.
• 🎯 Statements from figures like Trump supporting protesters have backfired, potentially leading to increased repression by the regime, framing demonstrators as foreign assets.
• 🛡️ For the first time, the Iranian army has indicated involvement in clamping down on protests, signaling a consolidation of the regime rather than defections, contrary to the intent of some US policies.

Regime Entrenchment and Support

• 🏛️ Unlike regimes designed to collapse without their leaders (e.g., Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi), the current Iranian system is more dispersed, making regime change difficult even if key figures are removed.
• 📉 The regime's support base, estimated at 15-25%, has shrunk, particularly after the 2022 crackdown, but remains significant enough to prevent easy overthrow.
• 🚫 The 'Venezuela blueprint' for regime change is considered a poor fit for Iran due to the system's deep institutional entrenchment and the regime's control over security apparatus.

Evolution of Protest Movements

• ✊ The current protests are building on previous movements, such as those in 2022 concerning women's rights, but with different slogans and a more violent component.
• 🔄 Each cycle of protests and government crackdown, without fundamental change, leads to more radicalized movements believing complete overthrow is necessary, a trend observed since 1999.