Trend Following Strategies: Classic vs. Modern Approaches with Jerry Parker & Experts

The Enduring Influence of Jerry Parker

• 💡 Jerry Parker, an original TurtleTrader, is highly regarded by the other panelists for his historical impact and ongoing influence on trend following strategies.
• 💬 Moritz Seibert noted Jerry's evolution from a shy individual to a more outspoken advocate for trend following, including his use of social media.

Navigating Modern Market Challenges

• ⚠️ The panelists discussed the "tricky" 2025 market environment for trend following, citing flash crashes in stocks and the significant impact of social media posts by world leaders on market volatility.
• 📈 Despite challenges, the trend following system design is built to release risk and exit positions during periods of high volatility, moving towards a clean slate for new trades.
• 📊 Jerry Parker observed that periods of poor performance in trend following often correlate with a lack of significant trends in various markets.

AI's Role in Trading & Operations

• 🧠 AI, particularly Chat GPT, is being used by Jerry Parker for writing and backtesting research, demonstrating its potential for rapid analysis.
• 🛠️ Moritz Seibert and Gareth Abbot expressed reservations about using AI for direct trading strategies, fearing it might learn from market noise or optimize for "easy" traits that don't lead to long-term profitability.
• 🚀 Richard Liddle is actively exploring advanced AI agents to optimize existing system rules and enhance marketing and distribution efforts for their strategies.

The Future of Trend Following & Crypto Markets

• 🔮 Jerry Parker envisions trend following gaining wider acceptance and its "rightful place" as superior to buy-and-hold, especially if it expands to include single stock trading and moves beyond a "crisis alpha" focus.
• 💰 Moritz Seibert cautioned that excessive popularity could dilute returns in the trend following space, particularly in niche markets.
• ₿ The discussion highlighted Bitcoin and crypto as significant trendable markets, with panelists acknowledging their volatility and the potential for alpha richness for trend followers, despite initial skepticism.

Psychology & System Design Debates

• 🎭 Jerry Parker emphasized the psychological difficulty of classic trend following, which involves enduring drawdowns and letting profits run, arguing against tailoring systems to personal comfort.
• 🔄 Gareth Abbot defended Bowmoor Capital's daily rebalancing and position sizing adjustments based on Average True Range (ATR) as essential for diversification, risk control, and capturing profits from various trend types.
• 🎯 Moritz Seibert and Jerry Parker critiqued the trend in "managed futures" to cut profits short and constantly adjust for volatility/correlation, arguing it sacrifices compounded annual growth for smoother, but ultimately lower, returns.