Treasury Yields Rise on Robust GDP Growth: Rick Santelli Reports

Bond Market Reaction to Economic Data

• 📈 The two-year Treasury yield showed strength, holding the upside after the GDP data release.
• 🎯 The 10-year Treasury yield is facing resistance around the 4.19% to 4.20% level, which has held for nearly two weeks.
• ⚠️ A close above 4.19% on the 10-year yield would represent a three-and-a-half-month high.

Dollar Index and Inflation Outlook

• 📊 The dollar index turned upward after the data release, despite having been moving down earlier.
• 📉 A close below 98.14 on the dollar index would mark a two-and-a-half-month low.
• 💡 The speaker expresses skepticism about reaching a 2% inflation target, citing mixed inflation reports.

Economic Growth and Capital Competition

• 💰 A robust economy typically leads to hotter competition for capital, historically resulting in higher long-term interest rates.
• ⚠️ The speaker notes a significant negative is having one report with hot inflation alongside other reports with cool inflation, indicating a need for clearer economic signals.

Consumer Confidence and Market Perception

• 🗑️ Consumer confidence is dismissed as polluted by media and the current administration's policies.
• 🧐 The speaker suggests that markets are giving the current administration more credit than the public perceives, contributing to negative confidence.