Treasury Secretary Bessent on Bond Markets and the 'One Big Beautiful Bill'

Bond Market Assessment

• 📊 The bond market has functioned smoothly, even during periods of high volatility, with trades clearing and no questions of financial stability.
• 📈 US Treasury bond issuance is going well, with an uptick in primary purchasers, indicating end-users are buying directly.
• 🌎 The US 10-year Treasury yield is down on the year, making it the only major 10-year yield globally to achieve this, underscoring the US market's stability.

Economic Impact of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill'

• ⚠️ Failing to pass the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' would lead to the expiration of the majority of the 2017 tax cuts.
• 🚨 This scenario is described as an economic sudden stop, a cataclysmic event for working Americans, job creation, and the financial system.
• 📈 The bill includes a debt ceiling raise and extension, which is essential and will not be allowed to fail.
• 💥 The expiration of tax cuts would constitute the largest tax increase in history.
• 📉 The Secretary criticizes insufficient models that suggest no growth increase from making the tax bill permanent, calling such assumptions ridiculous.

Potential Financial Crisis

• 🆘 Failure to pass the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' could trigger a financial crisis on the scale of 2008-2009.

Role and Goals at Treasury

• 🇺🇸 The Secretary expresses satisfaction with his role, aiming to enhance the economy, maintain the reserve status of the US dollar, and ensure the US Treasury market remains sound.
• 🎯 He aims to stay in his position through 2029 to achieve these goals.

Support for the Bill

• ✍️ A letter signed by 300 economists supporting the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' and urging speedy adoption of pro-growth tax policies was submitted for the record.