Tom Ellsworth's 2025 Predictions Graded by AI: Nvidia, Rates, Tariffs, and More

2025 Prediction Review

• 🎯 Tom Ellsworth reviews his 10 major predictions for 2025, with AI (Gemini and ChatGPT) grading their accuracy.
• 📊 The goal is to assess calibration and identify what truly mattered in the past year.

Key Predictions and AI Grades

• 💡 Elon Musk & TikTok: Prediction of acquisition graded a B-; AI noted interest but no deal, with Oracle emerging as a potential player.
• 📈 S&P 500 Target: Predicted 6,600, achieved 6,580 on the first trading day of 2026, earning an A+ for accuracy on market direction and headwinds.
• 🚀 Nvidia Performance: Predicted 25% growth, which was achieved despite a mid-year dip, resulting in an A+.
• 💳 Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Defaults: Predicted rising defaults due to increased consumer debt; AI gave an A as warning notices and calls for regulation emerged.
• 🏠 Mortgage Rates: Predicted rates above 6.25%, which held true due to limited Fed rate cuts, earning an A.
• 📉 Inflation Levels: Predicted inflation stubbornness above 2%, landing at 2.8% and earning an A; noted that prices for essentials remained high.
• 🤝 Tariffs as Tactics: Predicted tariffs would be used as leverage rather than permanent taxes, earning an A for accurately describing their role in trade negotiations.
• 🤖 Rise of AI Tools: Predicted an increase in AI tools, with AI agents becoming prominent; graded A- as the market shifted towards specific enterprise applications.
• 📺 Media Sales (MSNBC/CNN): Prediction of sales received a B+; while not sold outright, networks were spun off, indicating a significant shift.
• ⚛️ Nuclear Energy Boom: Predicted a comeback driven by AI data center power demands, earning an A+; noted significant investment in small modular reactors (SMRs).