Tina Fordham on the 'New Normal' of Geopolitics: Economic Warfare and Cyberattacks

The Geopolitics Supercycle

• 📈 Tina Fordham introduces the concept of the geopolitics supercycle, a period characterized by accelerating geopolitical risks.
• ⚠️ Over the past 15 years, there has been a tripling of geopolitical risk events materializing.
• 🧠 This framework helps to understand the current "blizzard of events" by examining the drivers of geopolitical risk against existing guardrails.

Ukraine Conflict and Market Reaction

• 🇺🇦 An audacious Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfields, 18 months in the making, signals a potential shift in geopolitical trends.
• 📉 Despite the significance of the attack, markets showed minimal reaction due to the overwhelming volume of news flow.
• 🚫 The attack makes sanctions relief or a ceasefire unlikely in the short term.

Shifting European Political Landscape

• 🇵🇱 The recent presidential election in Poland, won by a nationalist candidate, presents further challenges for Prime Minister Donald Tusk and impacts Europe's broader involvement.
• 🇪🇺 An anti-Europe stance from Poland's president-elect could affect the European Union's decisions on security and its involvement in the Ukraine war.
• 🌍 In a changed security and economic environment, even a seemingly small domestic vote like Poland's election can have a significant ripple effect across Europe.

Drivers of Geopolitical Risk

• ⚔️ Economic warfare and cyberattacks are identified as key factors shaping the new normal in geopolitics.
• 🌐 The effectiveness of diplomacy, international institutions, and global central banks are crucial guardrails against increasing geopolitical risks.
• 💡 Unless these institutions function effectively, we are likely to see a continuation and acceleration of geopolitical risk events.