Tim Seymour on Tariffs, Global Investing, and the Weaker Dollar Trend

Impact of Tariffs on Global Markets

• 📈 Tariffs are leading to effective tax rates higher than post-World War II, with potential for further increases.
• 🌍 Multinational corporations are seeking trade deals away from the US, indicating a desire for a world less reliant on American markets.
• ⚠️ Volatility is expected around these tariff announcements, impacting investment strategies.

Global Investment Strategy and Outperformance

• 💡 The trend of investing outside the US remains strong, despite short-term volatility.
• 📊 There has been a 15-year period of underperformance and fund outflows from global markets.
• 💰 Last week saw a significant $5.5 billion inflow into EM equity, suggesting renewed investor interest.

The US Dollar Trend

• 📉 The speaker expresses surprise at the rising US dollar, as theoretical impacts of tariffs might suggest otherwise.
• 🌐 The general view is that the trend on the weaker dollar remains, not necessarily due to other countries selling USD.
• 🏦 Fund flows around the dollar have been more about global hedging against a weaker dollar rather than outright sales of US assets.