The Vergecast: 2026 Predictions on AI, Apple, EVs, and More

Reflecting on 2025 Predictions

• 💡 The 2025 predictions made by the Vergecast hosts were largely inaccurate, with hosts attributing this to a "weird year" and personal life events like having children.
• ✅ Joanna Stern's mild prediction about posting to multiple social accounts was correct, and her medium take on Meta outpacing Apple in glasses was also considered accurate due to Apple's lack of progress.
• ❌ Neil Patel's mild prediction that Alexa Plus would be "fine" was deemed only "available," and his medium prediction of Walmart buying TikTok did not materialize.
• 📉 David Pierce's mild prediction that cable TV would die was accurate, but his medium take on a hit AI gadget was a significant miss.

2026 Predictions: Mild Takes

• 📱 Apple is predicted to release a foldable iPhone in 2026, which will likely face media and fan backlash for its high price, though it may be an early adopter hit.
• 🚗 The electric vehicle (EV) market is expected to see a small comeback in 2026, driven by more affordable models and the continued appeal of EVs over gas cars.
• 🎮 Grand Theft Auto 6 (GTA 6) is predicted to be a monstrous cultural and economic hit, potentially becoming a significant cultural touchstone akin to Fortnite or Roblox.

2026 Predictions: Medium Takes

• 🚫 The backlash against AI-generated content (slop) on social platforms will force platforms to implement labeling and filtering mechanisms, allowing users to opt out of AI content.
• 🚀 A new creator platform may rise to prominence in 2026, offering a human-centric alternative to current large platforms flooded with AI content.
• ⚠️ Waymo (or another autonomous vehicle company) is predicted to face a serious incident in 2026, such as a significant accident or death, which will intensify the debate around self-driving car safety and regulation.
• 📺 Netflix's potential move into video podcasts and creator deals could signal a new direction for the platform, possibly becoming a human-focused creator hub.

2026 Predictions: Spicy Takes

• 💥 OpenAI is predicted to fail in its current configuration by 2026, with Microsoft likely absorbing its intellectual property and models, due to a lack of clear product strategy and increasing competition.
• ❤️ Apple's updated Siri is predicted to become so advanced and conversational that users will develop romantic attachments to it, leading to widespread emotional and potentially physical relationships with the AI assistant.
• 📉 Apple is predicted to experience its worst year since the 1990s in 2026, facing challenges from executive turnover, a perceived lack of innovative product ideas, and ongoing antitrust scrutiny, potentially diminishing its status as the most beloved tech company.