The History and Future of Human Progress | Jason Crawford

The Concept of Progress Throughout History

• 💡 For most of human history, the idea of progress as an upward curve did not exist; people viewed history as cyclical or declinist.
• 🔑 This perception began to shift in the West around the 15th and 16th centuries, with figures like Francis Bacon advocating for empirical methods and the possibility of new discoveries.
• 🚀 Bacon argued that humanity could surpass the ancients by systematically collecting observations and inventing new technologies, a vision that materialized with the Industrial Revolution.

The Accelerating Pace of Progress

• 📈 Progress begets progress through feedback loops, where new inventions and infrastructure fundamentally aid further innovation.
• ⚙️ Examples include the interconnectedness of coal, steam power, iron, and locomotives during the Industrial Revolution, and the role of computers in designing better computers today.
• 🧠 An increase in population leads to more minds working on problems, and a belief in progress encourages investment, creating a virtuous cycle.

The Optimism and Shattering Illusions of the 20th Century

• ✨ The late 19th and early 20th centuries were marked by great optimism about technology and science as drivers of improvement.
• ⚠️ This optimism was challenged by the World Wars, which demonstrated that technology could make conflict more destructive and shattered illusions of automatic moral and social progress.
• 🌍 The rise of totalitarianism, global depressions, and environmental concerns also led to skepticism about modernity and progress itself.

A Slowdown in Progress and Its Causes

• 📉 Over the last 50 years, there has been a relative slowdown in scientific, technological, and economic progress, particularly in areas like energy, manufacturing, and transportation.
• 💡 While information technology and genetic engineering have seen revolutions, fundamental breakthroughs in other sectors have stalled compared to the period between 1870-1920.
• 🛠️ This slowdown highlights that progress is not automatic; it depends on human choices, belief in the future, and continued investment.

Reimagining the Future of Human Flourishing

• 🌟 The future can be as prosperous relative to the present as the present is to the past, with potential for advancements in AI, fusion energy, and space exploration.
• 🚀 Acknowledging the costs and risks of progress is crucial for steering it effectively and solving emerging problems.
• ✅ By believing in and investing in progress, humanity can create a future where people look back on our current lives as primitive, similar to how we view the distant past.