Texas Weather Forecast: Cold Fronts, Rain Chances, and Drought Conditions

Today's Weather and Near-Term Outlook

• ☀️ Today is expected to be warm, rain-free, and breezy across Texas, with temperatures around 76°F in Dallas, about 3° cooler than the seasonal average.
• 💨 Winds will pick up, gusting close to 20 mph on Friday and 25 mph on Saturday, contributing to warmer temperatures reaching the high 80s and low 90s.
• ☁️ Cloud cover is expected to increase today, preventing temperatures from reaching the 90s in some areas, with a slight chance of a brief sprinkle along and east of I-35.

Weekend Storms and Cooler Temperatures

• ⛈️ A cold front is anticipated to arrive on Saturday, bringing a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon.
• ⚠️ The northeastern parts of the state, near Paris and Sulfur Springs, have a marginal risk of strong to severe storms with potential for 60 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail.
• 📉 Following the front, Sunday will be cooler and drier, with highs around 80-82°F and gusty northerly winds.

Drought Conditions and Fire Weather

• 🏜️ Drought conditions are spreading across Southeast Texas, with moderate drought now encompassing a larger area and severe drought creeping into Wharton County.
• 🔥 An elevated fire weather risk is present north of Houston, including Montgomery and Walker counties, with more counties being added to burn ban lists.
• 💧 The lack of significant rainfall over the past few months has impacted lake levels, with extreme drought conditions noted in areas west of San Antonio.

Extended Forecast and Tropical Outlook

• 🌡️ Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the next 10 days, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, before a brief cool-down.
• 🥶 A second cold front is expected mid-next week, potentially bringing highs into the upper 70s and more fall-like conditions by late next week.
• 🌊 A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean has a 20% chance of development, but is expected to remain well away from Texas.

Halloween Weather Trends

• 🎃 Historically, Halloween in Texas has been mostly dry, though recent years have seen variability, including a warm Halloween in 2022 and a cold one in 2023.
• 📈 Current trends suggest Halloween weather by the end of the month may be closer to average, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
• ☔ While rain is needed, it's rare on Halloween, with only a 4% chance of seeing an inch of rain.