Sudan's Two-Year War: A Humanitarian Crisis and Uncertain Peace Prospects

The Genesis of Conflict

• 🇸🇩 The war in Sudan began on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), escalating into one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.
• 🤝 Initially allies who ousted Omar al-Bashier in 2019 and later toppled the civilian government in 2021, the army chief General Abd Fata al-Bhan and RSF commander General Muhammad Abdan Dagallo became foes.

Shifting Battlefield Dynamics

• 💥 The RSF, allegedly supported by foreign arms, launched attacks and gained ground, besieging Khartoum and controlling much of Darfur and the Kordofan region.
• 📈 By March 2025, the Sudanese army regained the initiative, recapturing Khartoum's presidential palace and airport, and now controls most of the north and east.
• 🌍 The conflict has fractured the country, with the humanitarian crisis worsening and instability spilling into neighboring nations.

Humanitarian Catastrophe

• 💔 Over 13 million people have been displaced, and estimates suggest over 150,000 have died.
• ⚠️ The UN describes the situation as the world's largest hunger and displacement crisis, with widespread reports of rape used as a weapon of war.
• 🆘 Humanitarian access is severely restricted, and demand for support for survivors of sexual violence has surged by 288%.

Stalled Peace Efforts

• 🕊️ International mediation and ceasefire attempts have repeatedly failed, with agreements immediately violated.
• 🌍 Diplomatic conferences, like the one in London, have been criticized for lacking Sudanese representation and for potentially resembling historical divisions of Africa.
• 🚫 Key actors, including the de facto government and RSF, often refuse to attend peace talks or implement agreements, such as the Declaration of Principles.

The Path Forward

• ⚖️ International and regional actors are urged to adopt a sustained, long-term approach, pressuring all parties to engage in dialogue through tools like sanctions.
• 🛑 There's a call to stop foreign support for both sides, with specific mention of alleged UAE funding for the RSF and Egyptian support for the Sudanese army.
• 📚 The education system has collapsed, with over 17 million children out of school, and many schools are repurposed as shelters, hindering any chance for future generations to receive education.
• 😔 Despite military gains and international efforts, peace remains distant, with civilians bearing the brunt of the ongoing conflict.