Sudan's Expanding Proxy War: No Military Solution?

Atrocities and Cover-ups in El Fasher

• 💡 A new report by Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab indicates the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) may be attempting to cover up mass killings in El Fasher by burning and burying bodies.
• 🔍 Satellite imagery analyzed by the lab shows evidence of RSF fighters disposing of tens of thousands of remains following the RSF's capture of the city in October.
• ⚠️ This pattern of body disposal and destruction is reportedly ongoing, with no signs of civilian life in the city, which has become a ghost town.

Escalation and Strategic Importance of the Conflict

• 🚀 The conflict has expanded beyond Darfur to Western Kordofan, a region vital for oil and gold deposits, and potentially South Sudan.
• 📈 The RSF's capture of Higle, a key oil processing region, is strategically and economically significant, impacting both South Sudan's revenue and Sudan's de facto government.
• 🎯 This expansion is seen as a struggle over territory by both the Sudan Armed Forces and the RSF to gain leverage in future negotiations.

Humanitarian Crisis and External Involvement

• 💔 The war has resulted in over 150,000 deaths since April 2023 and 12 million displaced people, with a severe humanitarian crisis.
• 🕊️ The killing of six UN peacekeepers from Bangladesh in a drone strike highlights the fragility of peace efforts and the potential for wider conflict, including with South Sudan.
• 🌍 The conflict has transformed into a proxy war, with external actors like the UAE supporting the RSF and Egypt and Saudi Arabia supporting the Sudan Armed Forces.

Calls for Peace and External Pressure

• 🚫 There is a consensus among external actors, including the Quad (US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt), that there is no military solution to the conflict.
• 🤝 The Quad has proposed a truce and a transition to civilian democracy, though the Sudan Armed Forces view these proposals as aligned with UAE interests.
• 📢 A significant concern is the underfunding of the Sudan response plan due to Western donor cuts, while the US maintains close ties with the UAE, a backer of the RSF.
• 🗣️ A major misunderstanding is the exclusion of Sudanese civilian organizations from external peace initiatives, which risks reaffirming the legitimacy of the warring factions.